TCU's win over Baylor reshapes Big 12 title race, keeps Arizona State alive for championship

When TCU edged out Baylor 42-36 on October 18, 2025, few realized it would become the defining moment of the 2025 Big 12 Conference football seasonBig 12. That night in Waco didn’t just hand TCU a win—it shattered Baylor’s slim playoff hopes and, unexpectedly, cleared a path for Arizona State to stay alive in a chaotic race for the conference title. The Great Bend Tribune called it "a quiet earthquake in the standings," and they weren’t wrong.

How TCU’s Victory Changed Everything

Before October 18, Baylor was 3-3 in conference play and still had a mathematical shot at the top four. They’d beaten Cincinnati and Houston earlier in the season. But after losing to TCU in a wild, back-and-forth game that featured six lead changes, their record slipped to 3-4. Suddenly, they couldn’t catch anyone. And because the Big 12 uses head-to-head tiebreakers as its first decider, that loss meant TCU now held the edge over Baylor in any potential tiebreaker scenario involving Arizona State, Houston, or Cincinnati.

Here’s the twist: Arizona State didn’t just benefit from Baylor’s collapse—they helped cause it. On the exact same day, Arizona State stunned Texas Tech 26-22 in Tempe, handing the Red Raiders their first conference loss. That win didn’t just boost ASU’s record to 5-2—it dented Texas Tech’s aura of invincibility. Suddenly, the team that had been cruising to the title (7-0 at home, 10-1 overall) had a crack in their armor.

The Standings: A Three-Way Tie With High Stakes

As of November 23, 2025, the top of the Big 12 looks like this:

• Texas Tech: 7-1 (10-1 overall), +334 point differential, 7-0 at home
• BYU: 6-1 (9-1 overall), 5-0 at home
• Utah: 6-2 (9-2 overall), 5-1 at home
• Arizona State: 5-2 (7-3 overall), 5-1 at home
• Houston: 5-2 (8-2 overall), 3-3 at home, 5-0 away
• Cincinnati: 5-2 (7-3 overall)

That’s right—three teams are tied at 5-2. And Arizona State’s path to the championship game isn’t just about winning their last two games. It’s about hoping Utah loses to BYU, hoping Houston stumbles at home against TCU on November 22, and praying that Texas Tech doesn’t run the table.

Who’s Really in Control?

Texas Tech still controls their destiny. Win out, and they host the championship game on December 6 at Jones AT&T Stadium. But here’s what most fans miss: if Texas Tech loses one more game, the tiebreakers go nuclear. Arizona State holds the head-to-head edge over Houston and Cincinnati, but not over BYU or Utah. That means if ASU finishes 7-2 and BYU finishes 7-2, BYU gets the nod—not ASU—because they beat each other head-to-head.

Meanwhile, Utah is the sleeper. Their offense (462 points scored) is explosive, their defense (203 allowed) is stingy, and they still have to face BYU and Texas Tech. A win over either could vault them into the title game. But they also have to hope Arizona State beats Colorado and Houston beats TCU—because if those two lose, the tiebreaker chain collapses in Utah’s favor.

The Coaching Chess Match

Behind every win and loss is a coach making high-stakes calls. Joey McGuire of Texas Tech has turned the Red Raiders into a defensive juggernaut—only 135 points allowed all season. Kenny Dillingham of Arizona State, in his second year, has turned a 3-9 team from 2024 into a playoff contender. He’s done it with balance: ASU’s offense is steady, not flashy, and their defense—while giving up 253 points—is opportunistic. They’ve forced 18 turnovers in their last six games.

And then there’s Sonny Dykes of TCU. After a brutal 1-4 start, his team won four straight, including the critical Baylor game. Dykes didn’t just outcoach the Bears—he outmaneuvered the entire conference’s expectations. His decision to go for it on fourth down in the red zone with 1:12 left against Baylor? That touchdown sealed the game… and possibly Arizona State’s fate.

What’s Next? The Final Two Weeks

November 22, 2025, was the turning point. TCU hosted Houston in Fort Worth, and Arizona State traveled to Colorado. The result? TCU won 31-24, handing Houston their second conference loss and eliminating them from contention. Arizona State, meanwhile, beat Colorado 28-17—keeping their hopes alive.

Now, the final week is set: Texas Tech hosts BYU on November 29, Utah plays at Cincinnati, and Arizona State closes at home against Kansas State. If Texas Tech beats BYU, they’re in. If BYU wins? The championship game becomes a three-team scramble, and Arizona State’s 26-22 win over Tech becomes the tiebreaker that could send them to Glendale.

Why This Matters Beyond the Trophy

This isn’t just about a conference title. The Big 12’s automatic bid to the College Football Playoff is on the line. If Arizona State makes it, they’ll be the first team from the Pac-12’s former members to reach the playoff since 2021. For a program that’s been rebuilding since 2020, it’s historic. For fans in Tempe, it’s more than a game—it’s validation.

And for TCU? They didn’t win the title. But they may have decided it.